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The question is: which men will they be? For most of the season, Ancelotti’s starting XI has been predictable. Often, he has revealed it early but this time he would not. “I’m not going to tell you the team,” he laughed. Real’s manager did, though, insist that the formation would not change, theoretically meaning a 4-3-3, more likely meaning a 4-4-2, and insisted that his side were not confronted by a huge problem. “A problem would be having to come from behind,” he said.
Then he added: “It is not important to win the game, it is important to win in the end of the tie.” It was a curious remark to make, and one that echoed what he had said after the first leg. A 0-0 scoreline that night means that for Real to go through without winning tonight, this game needs to finish goalless and for Real to win on penalties. Any other draw and it would be Atlético who go through. That draw also extended the run to seven games in which Atlético have not been beaten in the Madrid derby. Even last season’s Champions League final was 1-1 on 90 minutes. In other words, the last eight results between these two teams would see Atlético through.
That’s one reading of it, but there are others. When that first leg ended, it was questionable who had been better served by the result. Real have the advantage of playing at home but Atlético know that the risk of an away goal may condition this game.
In the tournament’s history, only 33% of the teams in the knockout stages who played the first leg at home progressed after a goalless draw. Atlético’s record is rather better, though: they have gone through both times they drew 0-0 at home; in 1973 against Galatasaray and last year against Chelsea, while the same happened against Sporting Lisbon in the Europa League in 2010. Real have a 75% European Cup qualification rate after drawing the first game 0-0 away, the most recent of those in 1991.
Ancelotti described the first leg 0-0 as the “best of the worst results”. Yet as the days have gone by, it has seemingly got worse. The most significant injury is probably Modric, who will be out for six weeks. It was no coincidence that Real’s drop in form, including two defeats at Atlético, coincided with his previous absence. Croatia’s national team doctor accused Ancelotti of putting him back in too quickly – he has played almost 550 of 600 available minutes since his return. “From another planet,” Ancelotti replied.
After a first leg game in which Real had dominated the opening period, only to be denied by Atlético’s goalkeeper Jan Oblak, Ancelotti’s analysis was simple: to go through they had to play the same way they did in the first half of the first leg. But without Modric, it will be harder. Without Bale, Benzema and Marcelo too, it is harder yet. If they do so, it will have to be with different players. As for using the same formation, the suspicion is that despite his insistence the absences, particularly that of Bale, are an opportunity to reinforce the middle – often Real’s weakness against Atlético.
At left-back, Ancelotti says the most natural option is Fábio Coentrão, who he had chosen not to risk at the weekend, resisting the temptation to give him some game time after a six-week absence. He only joined his team-mates in training yesterday and has started just three times in the competition this season. If he is not available, Nacho or Álvaro Arbeloa are possibilities. None of them are Marcelo whose ability to surprise is a key attacking weapon, as was shown in the final in Lisbon last season.
In the midfield there are three likely replacements for Modric, none of whom enjoy the full trust of the coach. Asier Illarramendi has started just two games in the competition this season; while Lucas Silva and Sami Khedira only have one apiece – in Khedira’s case a disastrous display against Schalke when he was hauled off early, six weeks ago. He has not played since. Another option may be to push one of the central defenders, Sergio Ramos or Pepe, forward and play Raphaël Varane.
Without Bale and Benzema up front, Ancelotti hinted that James Rodríguez might play in a front three, presumably with Toni Kroos, Isco and Illarramendi behind. It seems likely that will provide an opportunity for Javier Hernández, who recently complained that he was getting too few of them. He has made just six starts all season but two of those are the last two games, in which he has scored one and provided an assist.
Ancelotti was determined not to encourage the pessimism here. So too, from the other side, was Diego Simeone. For Atlético, there is something uncomfortable about the favourites tag now being placed upon them by many, for perhaps the first time. “Real played the first leg like what they are – the best team in the world,” the Atlético coach warned. “It is you lot who are focused on the players they are missing, not me. I’m concentrating on Atlético playing well.”
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